The spring transfer portal window officially opens one week from today, bringing on another wild period of transfer transactions across college football.
Underclassmen players have from April 16-25 to make their final decision on whether they're staying put or playing elsewhere. More than 2,100 FBS scholarship players have already entered the portal this offseason. Teams have invested more money than ever before to re-sign and retain their top players for 2025. We're about to find out if those efforts paid off.
Here are five things to watch once the portal is officially open for business next week.
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Spending spree before the cap?
Contenders with needs
Portal bluffing
Attrition
Value of spring transfers
The race to beat the settlement
April 7 had been circled on the calendars of coaching staffs across the country. The date of the final approval hearing for the House settlement loomed large this offseason as athletic directors, coaches and general managers prepared for the arrival of the new era of revenue sharing in college athletics.
Their expectation all along has been that if or when U.S. District Judge Claudia Wilken grants final approval of the terms of the $2.8 billion legal settlement, the newly established $20.5 million cap for paying student-athletes in 2025-26 officially goes into effect. Deals struck after that date would be subject to the new standards and scrutiny established by the settlement.
"Everybody's on pins and needles," Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters last week, "because we don't know exactly what's going to come out of this."
Wilken declined to provide final approval of a deal Monday, as expected, and directed attorneys for the NCAA and plaintiffs to address a short list of lingering concerns within one week. If final approval of the settlement is still several weeks away, it's going to impact the spring portal window.
The clock is ticking for NIL collectives to make one more big spend on player acquisition and retention before they enter the new world where all third-party NIL deals exceeding $600 must be reported and must be "fair-market value" for legitimate business purposes to not count toward the rev-share cap.
Texas Tech signed Stanford transfer outside linebacker David Bailey, the top player available ahead of the spring portal window, Friday night -- another strong addition to its remarkable portal haul. Bailey is expected to earn more than $1 million this season, sources told ESPN, and has already joined the team for spring practice.
It's no surprise that this spend-it-while-you-can period has proved to be extremely profitable for top college basketball players who hit the portal in March and April. But will it also bring a windfall for football players looking to test the spring portal?
"What's going on in basketball and football now is people are trying to beat a date," Smart said.
Graduate transfers who are leaning toward testing the portal would be wise to go in now, not later, if they're looking to maximize their value. Power 4 programs know they'll have to pay a steep premium if they're looking to add proven talent this spring, and they planned ahead for this by trying to resolve their roster needs in December and January. As a result, many are not looking to add or spend much in this upcoming spring window unless they encounter unexpected attrition.
While the settlement still awaits final approval, GMs and recruiting staffers continue to operate under the assumption the $20.5 million salary cap for athletic departments in 2025-26 will exist. Whenever that day arrives, will teams with College Football Playoff ambitions quickly identify methods for circumventing the cap?
Several staffers surveyed by ESPN say the answer to that question depends on the effectiveness of the new enforcement arm, and there's plenty of skepticism among coaches and ADs on that topic.
"If the clearinghouse has any teeth, it's going to be hard to use the money even if you have it," one SEC DPP said. "If it doesn't, and the first time they get sued it doesn't hold up, we're back to square one."
Contenders with needs
Which teams with national championship ambitions still have some work to do during the upcoming portal window? We're quickly going to find out.
As these teams start to wrap up spring practice, coaches are going to have a much better sense of which returning players are ready to step up and which position groups still need help. Here are six teams in ESPN's Way-Too-Early Top 25 that could be looking for portal pickups over the next few weeks.
Ohio State: Defensive line
Coach Ryan Day acknowledged in March it was a bit more challenging to fill Ohio State's roster needs in the winter portal window while their season was still going on. Extending the season into late January puts a staff in a tough spot with recruiting and official visits, and the Buckeyes inked just six transfers in the first window.
Ohio State lost four starting defensive linemen to the NFL in Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton. They also lost a reserve to the portal when Hero Kanu moved on to Texas. They were in a late battle for five-star defensive end Jahkeem Stewart, who signed with USC. Idaho State transfer defensive end Logan George was an intriguing pickup, but Ohio State is probably not done here. They'll be looking for experienced depth or younger players with upside to fill out their D-line room.
Texas: Wide receiver
Coach Steve Sarkisian has done a masterful job of landing high-impact playmakers at wide receiver via the portal during his tenure in Austin. He might need to do it again this spring to help boost a Texas receiving corps that could use some help.
Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. being sidelined by injuries this spring creates lots of opportunity for the Longhorns' young receivers to prove they're ready to contribute. The incoming freshman class features four top-150 recruits and looks terrific, but this is a room with no returning seniors. The Longhorns were in the mix for No. 1 portal wideout Eric Singleton Jr., who signed with Auburn, and should be a contender for the best available options this spring.
Sarkisian said Tuesday he'll also be looking for additions at tight end and on the defensive line to get the Longhorns' depth back to where it needs to be.
Penn State: Wide receiver
It's no secret that Penn State is going to be extremely competitive for starter-caliber wide receivers in the spring portal. Just ask athletic director Pat Kraft.
"We all know we need wide receiver help," Kraft told reporters in February, "so we've got to go find one."
The Nittany Lions' passing attack in 2024 was built around 135 targets to tight end Tyler Warren. Starting receivers Harrison Wallace III (Ole Miss) and Omari Evans (Washington) are gone, and Julian Fleming graduated. Liam Clifford is the only returning wideout on the roster who recorded more than two catches last season. USC transfer Kyron Hudson and Troy transfer Devonte Ross should be quality additions, but there's still time to find one more playmaker for Drew Allar.
In last year's spring portal cycle, only six wide receivers hit the market who ended up starting nine or more games for Power 4 programs. One was former Penn State receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who earned second-team All-SEC honors after putting up 981 receiving yards and eight TDs at Auburn. High-impact wideouts will probably be scarce and will certainly be pricey, but they might be the only thing this offense is missing to chase championships in 2025.
Georgia: Edge rusher
The Bulldogs lost most of their experience at this spot in the offseason, so it wouldn't be surprising if they get involved for some of the top pass rushers available this spring. Damon Wilson II looked like the clear next man up here, but he transferred to Missouri in January. Gabe Harris Jr. earned the most playing time last season among Georgia's returning edge defenders but has played just 268 career snaps.
Georgia could also be in the market for a No. 2 running back. There's plenty of confidence in Nate Frazier and the next step he's about to take as a sophomore after he rushed for a team-high 671 yards and 8 touchdowns on 5 yards per carry last season, but don't be surprised if Georgia goes looking for a veteran back to complement their rising star.
LSU: Defensive tackle
This was a need position for LSU going into last year's spring portal window after losing three NFL draft picks, and the Tigers competed for several of the top players on the market. When those players signed elsewhere, coach Brian Kelly generated a lot of attention for saying, "We're not in the market of buying players." The Tigers were certainly in that market in December and assembled arguably the No. 1 portal class in the country. But can they still go find a premier defensive tackle for 2025?
Last year, the Tigers missed on the big names and ended up with Wisconsin transfer Gio Paez, who did start all 13 games. They brought in massive Texas transfer Sydir Mitchell in December, but he played only 49 snaps over two seasons. It'll be interesting to see how new defensive line coach Kyle Williams evaluates his returning talent in spring ball. If a proven performer and a clear upgrade hits the market in April, expect LSU to be a contender.
Alabama: Tight end
The Crimson Tide are getting thin at tight end and will be searching for an impact addition in the spring window. They're looking to replace senior starters CJ Dippre and Robbie Ouzts and working with limited options in spring practice.
Josh Cuevas, their top returning option after catching 16 passes for 218 yards and one score last season, will miss the rest of spring practice due to injury. The Tide are also missing returning backup Danny Lewis Jr. and freshman Marshall Pritchett, the No. 211 recruit in the 2025 ESPN 300.
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has a lot of belief in Cuevas, who followed this staff from Seattle to Tuscaloosa, and the staff already brought in two tight ends via the portal this offseason. But after these spring setbacks, they're likely going to need one more.
Expect some portal bluffing
Hundreds of players will enter the portal this spring in search of better opportunities elsewhere. But not all of them are actually trying to transfer.
The threat of transferring has been a powerful bargaining chip for players and their agents, even more so when it's late April or early May and there aren't a ton of quality replacements available. Personnel staffers are bracing for big demands at the portal deadline.
"I think we'll see the beginning of guys testing the market," one Big Ten staffer predicted. "I think we'll see a lot of guys enter and see a lot of guys go back to their original spot after seeing what else was out there."
So far in this 2024-25 portal cycle, we've seen 187 FBS scholarship players enter the transfer portal and eventually decide to withdraw and stay put. That's almost 8% of all scholarship portal entries since August.
Typically, the bigger names on that list are players at programs going through coaching changes. They put their name in to see what's out there but ultimately were persuaded by the new coaching staff to come back. But there were also several examples in December of blue-chip freshmen who threatened to transfer -- and, in some cases, even announced plans to transfer -- but never entered the portal. Why? Because they got what they were looking for from their current team.
In most cases, these deals between agents and GMs are going to get worked out before the player hits the market. Players can lose some leverage in negotiating with their current program once they've officially entered the portal, especially if they don't already have clear options lined up. So don't be surprised if there's another round of rumors this spring about big-name players potentially leaving that never come to fruition. The Power 4 teams that have the money are going to do what it takes to keep the players who matter.
Roster cuts incoming
West Virginia removed 22 football players from its roster Monday as it prepares to cut down to the expected 105-man roster limit for the 2025 season. The Mountaineers were the first, but they won't be the last.
Among the players cut were two senior transfers and five true freshmen who just joined the program this offseason. The departing group was a mix of scholarship and walk-on players, many of them redshirt freshmen with limited playing experience.
Coach Rich Rodriguez has consistently expressed his frustration with the 105-man limit since taking over the program in December and warned that roster cuts were coming. Dropping 22 from the roster puts West Virginia at 104 players for next season. But they're clearly not done, because Rodriguez needs room to add a lot more talent in the spring portal window.
"We need to get some O-linemen and D-linemen," Rodriguez said last month. "We need to get some wideouts, a running back. We probably need to get some linebackers, a corner, a safety and a couple D-lineman. I made sure the kicker today -- he had been pretty good, but today wasn't the best day. So, probably need a kicker, maybe, to compete, too. I like where the quarterbacks are at. We got some competition there. But the other ones ... yeah, we'll be in the portal."
We're going to see more attrition in the weeks ahead as schools with strong walk-on programs and first-year coaches reckon with the impending roster limits. But there might be good news on the way following the Monday settlement hearing.
Wilken pushed back on the roster limit requirement during the hearing, asking lawyers to consider a phased approach to reducing roster sizes.
"My idea there is to grandfather in a group of rostered people," Wilken said. "There are not that many. It's not that expensive. It would generate a lot of goodwill."
College football coaches would absolutely support grandfathering in current players and avoiding harsh post-spring roster cuts. They're going to need clarity on this matter as soon as possible so they can make decisions on who's staying and who's leaving.
"We've got to remove a lot of kids from the program, and it sucks," Kansas State coach Chris Klieman said last week. "There's a lot of kids that want to be here, want to stay here that we can't have in the program. ... It's frustrating to me because I don't understand why the number came of 105. Why didn't we kind of slowly bring it down? I don't even know who decided it. But as a lot of us coaches talk about it, we're not in those meetings."
Do spring additions pay off?
Last spring, we saw 288 scholarship players transfer to Power 4 programs. Here's what we can we learn from that group and the successes and struggles they encountered during the 2024 season.
Among last year's spring transfers, only 21% started more than six games last season and 55% earned zero starts. Yes, these transfers get brought in and paid to help resolve depth chart needs, but they're also starting from a disadvantaged position by missing out on spring practice.
The spring portal market did yield 12 players who earned all-conference honors last season and a dozen more who picked up honorable mention all-conference recognition. There are plenty of high-profile success stories you can point to like Derrick Harmon (Oregon), Damien Martinez (Miami), D'Angelo Ponds (Indiana) and Eli Stowers (Vanderbilt).
But the data clearly suggests there are no guarantees when it comes to players immediately making significant contributions. A total of 165 spring transfers (57%) ended up playing fewer snaps in 2024 than they did at their previous school, and 129 ended up playing fewer than 100 snaps last season.
Among the 68 Group of 5 players who transferred to join Power 4 rosters, 74% saw less playing time in 2024 and half of them did not start a game for their new team. Only 12 of these G5 players who transferred up started more than six games last season, and just nine of the 41 FCS-to-P4 transfers earned more than six starts.
At the end of the season, 38 of these 288 transfers (13%) went back into the portal to see if they could have better luck elsewhere. Waiting until the spring portal to make a move can be risky. Coaching staff members can say all the right things during the recruiting process, but in truth they might just be looking for backups and developmental depth.
Then again, all the money being thrown around for portal pickups might make those decisions worthwhile regardless of playing time. As one staffer at a G5 school summed it up, "If you are getting $30,000 and hear $300,000, you can't afford to say no."