It was quite the eventful 2024 NFL season, full of surprises, both positive and negative. Fantasy football managers must now decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true for the 2025 NFL season, well, don't be surprised!
NOTE: All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring.
Don't be surprised if ... Puka Nacua becomes the first to 2,000 receiving yards
We just saw Saquon Barkley become only the ninth RB to rush for 2,000 yards, but nobody has ever reached that mark for receiving yards. Nacua seems as likely a choice as any to become the first. He has played in 28 NFL games over two seasons, averaging 88.4 receiving yards per game. By comparison, Ja'Marr Chase averaged 100.5 yards per game this season -- tops in the sport -- but he sits at 87.5 receiving yards per game for his four-year career. Justin Jefferson has averaged 96.5 yards per game in his career, highest of all time. Nacua isn't far from that mark.
Nacua caught 990 yards worth of passes this season, but he did so over just nine full games and brief parts of two others. He caught 1,486 yards worth of passes as a rookie last season (87.4 YPG). This season, he averaged 90.0 yards per game, although if we focus solely on his final eight games, that average jumps up to 104.7. If he plays in all 17 games next season, that pace would translate to 1,780 receiving yards. To get to 2,000, he would need to boost his average to 117.6.
There's a good reason why no wide receiver has reached 2,000 receiving yards in a season, but things are trending upward. It's difficult to play at such a high level for four months, acknowledging dependence on top-notch QB play as well. Detroit legend Calvin Johnson finished the 2012 season at 1,964 yards. The 4-12 Lions stunk, but QB Matthew Stafford and Johnson were great together. Nacua's teammate Cooper Kupp got to 1,947 yards in 2021, with Stafford again approaching 5,000 passing yards. They won a Super Bowl. I don't think Stafford is done yet. Nacua is just starting out.
Don't be surprised if ... Ja'Marr Chase slips outside the top 5 WRs
Chase is awesome, having just registered only the 14th season in history of at least 1,700 receiving yards. He's a different awesome than Barkley is -- because he's younger and a wide receiver. While wideouts depend on their QB more than running backs do, pitfalls remain. Chase was extremely motivated this past season as he, ahem, chased a historic contract extension. We are kidding ourselves if we pretend it didn't affect his performance. Also, the Bengals and their sputtering defense created weekly deficits that forced QB Joe Burrow to throw 652 times. No other QB approached 600 passes. This isn't likely to repeat.
Chase finished both 2022 and 2023 outside the top-10 WR scorers (WR12 and WR13, respectively), so if we are using multiseason averages to project ahead, Jefferson (a top-six WR in all of his four full seasons and WR2 this season) and CeeDee Lamb (last season's WR1, and this season's WR2 before sitting out the final two games) would get the nod over him. Little separates these players. Chase figures to get his new contract, but the Bengals might lose free agent WR Tee Higgins this offseason.
The obvious consensus will rank Chase as the top WR going into 2025 and perhaps even as the overall No. 1 player off the board (as I do), but I would also argue you shouldn't want the No. 1 pick. Jefferson, Lamb, Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers (just give him a passable QB and he would be a likely dynasty No. 1 overall choice) and several others are similarly qualified as we statistically project ahead. Give me a late first-round pick -- and the subsequent early second-rounder -- every time.
Don't be surprised if ... Jahmyr Gibbs becomes fantasy's top RB
Speaking of first-round picks ... most fantasy managers will make 2,000-yard rusher Barkley the No. 1 RB in 2025 drafts. That's fine. I have Bijan Robinson first. Gibbs, however, scored the most PPR points at the position this past season, making an elite closing run as he piled on 126.1 points over the final four games (including 46 in the finale). Detroit's offense is elite. Gibbs did this somewhat by necessity, with Lions tandem partner David Montgomery (knee) out.
Still, Gibbs did achieve this and the Lions certainly recognize that they can depend on him for more volume, with or without Montgomery. Gibbs was underutilized in the passing game for much of the season, even as he finished with 52 receptions, tied for sixth among running backs. The Lions should rely on Gibbs far more than Montgomery, and they likely will (to some degree) in 2025. Do not assume this timeshare continues with the same delineation of duties moving forward. Gibbs sailed past 350 points this season, but he can do more.
Don't be surprised if ... Barkley becomes a (modest) bust
Barkley may well have broken Eric Dickerson's 40-year-old record had the Eagles needed a win in Week 18. It may appear difficult to note anything negative here ... except history tells us that running backs coming off their 2,000-yard campaigns haven't come close to repeating the performance the following season. Start with O.J. Simpson five decades ago and go all the way to Derrick Henry just a few years ago. Not one of them came within 500 rushing yards of 2,000 the following season, although a few did later in their careers.
Yes, several of those players missed games due to injuries -- which may or may not be coincidental considering the physical toll it took to rush for 2,000 yards the year prior. Perhaps it's like a baseball pitcher logging a heavy workload and/or pitching deep into the postseason, and then the following year, look what happens.
One more thing: several of these backs didn't even finish as fantasy's RB1 during their 2,000-yard season -- receiving counts in PPR! This includes Dickerson, who was only RB3 in 1984.
Look, you might not want to hear it -- nor do Philadelphia Eagles fans -- but it is so difficult to repeat as fantasy's top, well, anything. Barkley turns 28 on Super Bowl Sunday. He handled the football a career-high 378 times (345 carries) this regular season, and he has a history of dealing with injuries. The Eagles presented him the perfect statistical opportunity, with a running threat at QB, a top offensive line, smart coaching and ample volume. This was the first time Barkley crossed 1,400 rushing yards in seven seasons. Few expect another 2,000-yard campaign, but how far will he drop off?
We shouldn't expect Barkley to bust in the practical sense of the word. He should remain among the most productive RBs and I rank him as RB3 for 2025, after Robinson and Gibbs. Still, we cannot gloss over prior concerns about missing games. We had these concerns this past summer. Nobody expects him to be next season's version of Christian McCaffrey, but there is downside. Eager fantasy managers might make Barkley the No. 1 overall player. That would be risky and hopeful. Wide receivers are far safer, more reliable and able to duplicate workload.
Don't be surprised if ... three NFC East passers are top-10 QB scorers
Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels starred this season, but Dak Prescott struggled in his half-season before a hamstring injury ended things prematurely. Then again, Prescott was 2023's QB3. Don't bet against Prescott returning to prominence. In fact, if the Giants draft the right QB (Colorado's Shedeur Sanders, for instance), perhaps all four of this division's QBs will end up in the top 10.
Out of sight often means out of mind, so it is likely Prescott slips quite a bit in fantasy drafts in comparison to his 2024 ADP. While I don't generally believe in most "every other season" themes, for Prescott, something odd is going on. Prescott was the No. 2 fantasy QB in 2019, falling to No. 7 in 2021 and back to No. 3 in 2023. Injuries curtailed his 2020 and 2022 seasons. We have little reason to question Prescott returning to full health in 2025, but it won't stop fantasy managers from fading him anyway. Don't let him fade too far.
Don't be surprised if ... the 2025 Seahawks become the 2024 Lions, in the backfield
No RB duo matches what Detroit achieved this past season, as the Gibbs/Montgomery pairing (over 14 games) combined for nearly 600 fantasy points, with more than 3,000 total yards and 32 touchdowns. Montgomery averaged 15.8 points per game, ranking him among the top-15 running backs.
Then again, in Seattle, Kenneth Walker III (11 games) and Zach Charbonnet both approached 200 points. Charbonnet really thrived when Walker was out, scoring 38.3 points in Week 14, and 25.7 points in Week 3. They combined for 17 TDs. Somehow, despite this electric duo, only four teams rushed for fewer yards than Seattle. This offense would be better served feeding Walker and Charbonnet and avoiding the chance for another 15 interceptions from Geno Smith, just one off the league lead.
Other quick hits for 2025 that should not surprise you
Trey McBride leads all TEs with 10 TD grabs: There was no good reason for McBride to post nary a TD catch prior to the penultimate week of the season. Red zone targets were not an issue, and he enjoyed solid QB play. McBride finished with two TD grabs. In 2025, watch McBride turn his luck around and pile on the touchdowns. It seems only fair.
Travis Hunter gets drafted too high in fantasy: As with every rookie, we do not know for sure where Hunter, the Colorado Buffaloes' hybrid WR/CB -- or is it CB/WR? -- ends up, but chances are the NFL's version of baseball great Shohei Ohtani will become a bit too popular in standard fantasy drafts.
Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are top-15 fantasy QBs: These guys are good. Get ready for WR Rome Odunze breakout time, too.
Joe Burrow, still great, is not a top-5 fantasy QB: Running counts, too. Bo Nix and Drake Maye -- no, really -- may have better chances.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing for the third time: He isn't Barkley, but he came close this season (1,921 yards), and he will be a significantly better draft-day value. Ignore his age, for now.
Kyren Williams leads the league with 16 rushing TDs: He has had 31 rushing scores over the past two seasons, so this isn't much of a reach.
Jaylen Wright leads the Dolphins in rushing yards: Meanwhile, De'Von Achane catches 100 passes.
Isaac Guerendo leads the 49ers in rushing yards: Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey catches 35 passes. Sorry. I'm not investing early again.
Mike Evans makes it 12-for-12 in 1,000-yard seasons: Meanwhile, Chris Godwin scores more fantasy points. Godwin was on his way this season.
Malik Nabers leads all flex-eligible players in fantasy points: Just. Get. Him. A. Quarterback.